Yes.....that's what I believe in.  


It was advocated by the Senior George Bush, BTW.  Broadcast on the CNN......I remember quite clearly.

I know, you won't believe it...but September 11, 2001...I saw it coming, way back....OF COURSE, NOT IN THAT FORM

But, I remember telling somebody.....way back in 1999....after watching BBC and following the news carefully (you can call it OSINT...OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE)

Osama bin Laden is going to hit the U.S. BIG TIME

Of course....my friend didn't believe...
5 days after 9/11...he sent me a rare e-mail....the guy was kinda nervous...

Anyway....what I emphasize is :

U.S., the FREE WORLD....is facing the GREATEST CHALLENGE FROM TOTALITARIAN REGIMES.....

& ONE OF THE GREATEST WEAPONS TO COUNTER THIS IS :



Once again....Quoting wikipedia for a definition :

"Soft power is a term used in international relations theory to describe the ability of a political body, such as a state, to indirectly influence the behavior or interests of other political bodies through cultural or ideological means. The term was first coined by Harvard University professor Joseph Nye, who remains its most prominent proponent, in a 1990 book, Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power. He further developed the concept in his 2004 book, Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics"


Relevant Excerpts from article by Joseph S. Nye, Jr. in foreignaffairs.org and my take:

"Indeed, that is what Washington achieved after World War II: it used soft-power resources to draw others into a system of alliances and institutions that has lasted for 60 years. The Cold War was won with a strategy of containment that used soft power along with hard power."

I think that The systematic portrayal of the true evil that decimated 20 million of the Soviet population HAS been portrayed through afew movies.  But China, N. Korea & other Totalitarian Regimes story was NOT WELL TOLD.  It could have been...THROUGH POPULAR HOLLYWOOD MOVIES. 
My theory is you have to penetrate THE INNER PSYCHE OF THE AUDIENCE. Had it been, it would have been a DIFFERENT STORY TODAY.


 

   
I guess much more can be achieved through Imagery Intelligence (IMINT).
Let us take some cases to review the situation:

Case 1. Static Imagery Analysis. We all know that satellite imagery can even
pick up somebody's thrown away cigarette case.  But what about the analysis ?

There should be a proper team to have a overall analysis. 

What I mean is :  A mathematician-cum-programmer can run Fourier Series Analysis to much more sophisticated analysis on a vector image to arrive at a pixel-by-pixel analysis.

But then is it handed over to the right person ?  That person should have a
clear understanding of numerous things -

Intel on the person who threw away that case. 
Psychoprofile of that person to gauge his movements. 
Excellent geographical knowledge of that area. 
Image analysis of area surrounding the cigarette case.


Or else how can that person be tracked down to let's say where he would be at  say 9 p.m. at night ?


Case 2.  A satellite imagery picks up a moving train at night moving up a gradient.  The objective is to know when that train would pass over a certain culvert.  Sufficiently good image available.  But then the ANALYSIS TEAM HAS TO BE EXCELLENT.  The team has to have idea of the following :

Excellent geographical idea of the terrain.  To know gradient of rail track, special weather conditions like incoming fog, etc.  Only then can they input into a computer what spped is expected 5 miles up the line.  And arrive at an approximate ETA (Expected Time of Arrival).

Exact time schedules of all trains, whether another train running late would affect the train under observation. 


Heck...can we ask for more geographical parameters ???

The satellites give us more than enough.    
 

   
This is what everybody is worried about nowadays.

China's market strategy seems to be quite different from Russia's.

While both are Communist countries, there seems to be much more than meets the eye with respect to Chinese corporate take overs !

This is because Russian policymakers in Kremlin do not have that much control over their business counterparts, but China's story is different.

Check out this excerpt from Joe McDonald, AP Business Writer :

"China Is Welcome on Wall Street, but Its Foreign Acquisitions Are Still Provoking Unease
BEIJING (AP) -- Flush with hundreds of billions of dollars, China Inc. is still having trouble investing abroad, running into foreign security worries as it tries to acquire companies and resources.
The latest casualty: A deal by a Chinese maker of telecom gear and an American private equity firm to buy U.S. tech company 3Com.
The bidders say they just want to make money. But acquisitions are a political minefield because many Chinese buyers are owned by or close to the communist
government, feeding fears that Beijing might gain access to military technology or control of strategic resources.
"Where it looks purely commercial, everyone finds that acceptable, but where it touches on resources or security concerns, it just falls into a different basket," said William Hess, China analyst for the consulting firm Global Insight. "As soon as politics enters into the equation, it raises the risks for all parties. It's not just a business case."

Why are the Chinese companies so interested in buying up companies that deal with technology and defense ?

Russian companies seem to focus on other market-driven entities like oil sectors, etcetera.

I think  A COMPARATIVE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS should be made with respect to buying up of companies BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CHINA .

   
Post 9/11, Western countries and Allied forces have been pre-occupied with tackling Islamic fundamentalist forces.

Pre-occupied with tackling Iran, U.S.- NATO - Allied forces have not paid proper attention to the growing NUCLEAR POTENTIAL of the COMMUNIST BLOC.

Russia still has the greatest number of nuclear warheads.  Though their accuracy is far worse.

China has made great strides in its nuclear weapons and missile capability.

Check out the graph (source: wikimedia ) below :



And now, we have revelations that China definitely posesses 2000 nuclear warheads.

Possibly, upto 3000 !

And currently it is capable of hitting any target on the globe !

Now, add the North Korean factor.

Plus, factor in Russia's missiles, growing submarine-launched ballistic missile capability.  The growing understanding between these 2 countries.

   

A nightmare scenario can arise in Pakistan….it has long been debated in global military circles.  And it seems we are inching towards that possibility.

The present Pakistan regime cracks down on the extremist Islamists.

They respond by asymmetric warfare…suicide bombings, surprise attacks, ambushing the Pak army convoys in the North West Frontier Provinces.

The Pak army becomes highly vulnerable managing so many fronts – North West Frontier Province, Baluchistan, FATA & the Northern Areas, plus Pakistan –occupied Kashmir.  Add to that suicide bombings in Pakistan proper.

The Islamist militants LAUNCH ATTACKS ON THE NUCLEAR FACILITIES OF PAKISTAN.
 

THE EXTREMISTS GET HOLD OF THE NUKES.
 

To safeguard the interests of the Indian sub-continent, there is but one option:
 

NATO Forces or U.S. forces launch a pre-emptive strike…

Or they LAND FORCES TO SECURE THE PAKISTAN NUKES.

 

 

 

Trouble's brewing in Lebanon again.  And this

times it's a combo of Hezbollah + Al Qaeda.

Quoting AP : "as Islamic militants of the Jund al-Sham group fired rocket propelled grenades at the army on the edge of the southern Ein el-Hilweh camp, " 

So, who are these people, what are their objectives ?

These are Qaeda elements, looking for "TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY".....Objective : to create division +instability.

One has to remember, the MAIN THREAT here is the Hezbollah. It also has a mass base, because it does do a bit of charity work, but ONLY FOR ITS OWN PEOPLE, THE SHIAS.

The best way to counter this new Qaeda threat is to precisely do nothing.  This is because, IMHO....they do not have the logistics to launch major attacks in Lebanon.

However, their activities should be monitored.

 

 Post – 911 , we are more and more awakening to the fact that what makes the difference is proper Intelligence – GATHERING ,  SORTING , ANALYZING……..

 

And of course, to recommend to defence experts steps to take.

 

Intelligence is far more valuable than weapons in modern warfare, because you CAN PREVENT ATTACKS.  And if you have a strong defence, of course, you can afford to go on the offensive.

 

Intelligence can be divided into the following categories : 

 

IMINT (Imagery Intelligence)

HUMINT(Human Intelligence)

COMINT (Communications Intelligence)

SIGINT (Signals Intelligence)

GEOINT (Geospatial Intelligence)

 

& others…

 

…But most important is analyzing to come at the correct conclusion from the above.

 

Weapons are definitely taking a turn to being....

 

1. more "smarter"....instead of mass casualty & colateral damage....smart weapons take out a specific target.
2. more accurate.....it started with laser-guidance, thermal guidance, etc...
3. more & more reliance on intelligence.....you can put in your directional parameters much more better.... 
4. Even a non-military person can do a bit of IMINT....this is good in a sense, since majority of the net folk support the world's democracies.
5. Echelon satellite & allied systems are probably getting more & more sophisticated to thwart any attacks